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TAIWANESE AGREED TO STOP, WHO's NEXT ? By  Henk Brus (September 14, 00)

The Taiwanese boat owners have finally done, what looked to be the only sensible solution to the problem of the skipjack oversupply : "Stop Catching". Purse Seiner owners from Taiwan have agreed to stop fishing for the period of 2 months for each vessel in the coming period of 4 months, from October 1st till Januari 1st . This means in practice that boats which are at sea will fish until they are full return to port and remain there for 60 days. The period of 4 months has been installed to enable boats who just arrived at the fishing ground to complete their trip, so they do not have to return empty, which will even further increase the already big losses.In order to cement the agreement the Taiwanese have opened bank guarantees to ensure that they will stick to the agreement, and if not, they will loose their deposit. Obviously the rapidly increasing oil prices, in combination with frozen skipjack at US$ 400 M/T, have convinced the Taiwanese that stopping is the only way to keep them from sinking.

The question is of course : what will be the effect of this all ? Will prices indeed start to shoot up ? The first signs seem to be there, prices moved abt 5% UP during the last few days. However the crucial point is: Who's Next ?   Because the Taiwanese take up only abt 13% of the world tuna catch (of which they catch abt 85% skipjack). When are No. 1 Japan, Korea, USA, and Philippines going to make a move ? I left out Indonesia because I am afraid that, considering the current state of he nation, they won't be able to get organized on this. But if also the Japanese, Koreans, and Americans, with there more expensive boats and crews, would join, we might see some real impact. The Western Pacific accounts for abt 65% of the estimated 1.95 million M/T of skipjack caught in 1999. And since the Japanese are the dominant party ( they landed in Japanese ports alone,  in 1999 170.000 M/T of skipjack), they should take the next step.
However as always the Japanese seem to have a hard time taking decisions, especially where it concerns their fishing interests, and the conservation of resources. The whale issue, and the recent conflict at Hawaii over the installation of the  Western Pacific Tuna commission, are examples. The Japanese seem to be willing to agree, but then they wish to exclude the much higher priced catch of yellowfin. How on earth they want to do that, considering that most of the WPO yellowfin is caught in combination with skipjack, and accounts only 30% of the total WPO catch ? Sounds much like killing whales for scientific research, and eating them afterwards.

If the Japanese are serious this time, and will be next, surely the South-Koreans will follow, and likely also the Americans. If this would actually happen, and they all tie up for two months, we will surely see a rapid return to healthy prices. Because these four nations together make up around 80% of the skipjack catches in the Western Pacific.
On the other hand if some nations will continue fishing, hoping to take the profit of the sacrifices made by the Taiwanese, then I am afraid chances are dim that we will see any major price improvements. So Who's Next ?

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