WILL CHICKEN PHOBIA
LEAD TO TUNA RATIONAL?
(By Henk Brus, October 31, 2005,
henkbrus@atuna.com )
With Italian chicken consumption declining by 50% in the last 2 weeks due to
fear over the bird flu, poultry farmers hit the streets. This week Italian
farmers are demonstrating in the North East of the country against the
“irrational fear” over the bird flu. This irrational fear for chicken meat has
already been named “chicken phobia”; a phobia which could cripple the chicken
sector.
Italian farmers were stressing that scientists have given repeated assurances
that Italian chickens are completely risk free. But Italian consumers do not
seem to listen, and a large group has stopped buying chicken. Also restaurants
and other catering outlets have started removing chicken off their menus. In
France, consumption also dropped by 20% over the last week.
As a result poultry prices in Italy have plummeted by 27 percent on a monthly
basis, whereas at the same time, prices in France were surprisingly rising by
5%. So far consumers in the UK have not lost their appetite for chicken yet.
Until today the “chicken phobia” has not hit other major European markets yet,
but that could be changing very soon. So far the pattern shows that as soon as
the bird flu hits a country, chicken consumptions plummets immediately.
According to most scientists, it will just be a matter of days or weeks before
major European nations are also confronted by the infection of their national
poultry industry with the avian flu. The question seems not to be IF the bird
flu will reach the European Union, but rather WHEN.
Even if consumers would react rationally, still the effect of the bird flu on
chicken meat consumption can be enormous. When the bird flu reaches the chicken
farms of Italy, France, UK and the Netherlands, it will be likely that many
farms will need to be disinfected and cleared, and all the chicken will be
destroyed. It will bring the distribution of live chicken to a halt, thus
paralyzing the chicken meat industry. If in such a scenario the consumption of
chicken meat would remain stable -which is not expected- prices for chicken meat
would rise sharply as a result of a shortage.
With European member states consuming more than 7 million M/T of poultry
annually, any major decline in consumption will immediately affect alternatives
like beef and fish.
Chicken meat has been preferred by consumers not only looking for taste, but
also because it has 50% less fat than pork and 40% less than beef. This is also
the group of consumers which is more likely to eat fish, than hard-core
beeflovers.
Following the above logic, one would argue that tuna consumption has a good
chance to grow as a result of the bird flu. After all, it is called: “the
chicken of the sea” and many of its characteristics match the feathered version.
Most of us also thought we would see a boost in sales when we faced the mad cow
disease and the pork pest in Western Europe the last few years. However the rise
in consumption often turned out to be not as high as projected.
Major reason probably is that most consumers do not directly see canned tuna as
a replacement for a juicy steak or a nice tender chicken fillet. But a growing
group of consumers see the tuna steak as an optional warm meal component. Tuna
seems to be the most rational alternative!
Over the last 2 years, we have seen frozen tuna steaks appearing in the freezer
departments of most European supermarkets. Surprisingly in several markets the
introduction was initiated by discount retailers like Aldi and Liddl, but now
most freezers carry a pack with 2 vacuum-packed frozen yellowfin tuna steaks
often produced in Europe or Asia.
When chicken lovers make the switch to tuna steaks, and manage to not overcook
it and degrade it to a tasteless dry shoe sole, there is a good chance that we
will see a rapid growth in tuna steak consumption in the coming 12 months. Tuna
has the protein, the low calorie and low fat these consumers are looking for;
and frozen tuna steak prices are often selling cheaper than chicken breasts. So
if the tuna steak will only succeed to take a slight slice out of the 7 million
M/T chicken meat pie, the effect on yellowfin demand will already be dramatic.
In the coming weeks, European supermarkets could become interested in featuring
a major yellowfin tuna and salmon steak promotion, in preparation of what is to
come.
The major challenges for the tuna steak industry in serving these new “chicken
phobia” consumers will not only be to supply sufficient quantities of yellowfin
tuna, but also to teach housewives how to cook a healthy tuna steak in the way
that they will experience the same juiciness and tenderness as found in their
chicken fillet!
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